The 2020 US Election Results & Urgent Need for a Constitutional Remedy
Although I am not an American I am “an Englishman pursuing the American Dream”. I have spent much time in America working with many of its agencies and companies and Universities. I love the country and all that it stands for. I think that the Constitution of the United States of America is one of the most beautiful documents ever written, right up there with the works of William Shakespeare. I see America as the light of hope in the world, to help rise all nations up from the problems of our shared history and the plight of our present suffering. For this reason I want America to be strong and to be the world leader, but working in co-operation with other nations. This doesn’t just mean our allies, but also countries like Russia and China too, which have their own rich history and cultures. We could be working on some of the worlds pressing problems together such as the environment or building lunar and planetary colonies. It is for this reason, that I embark on this (controversial) article, believing that America can and should be the “leader of the free world” if it can only fix its significant problems of corruption.
In 2020 the Democratic Party won the election against the sitting President Donald J Trump. This led to President Biden and Vice President Harris taking office in the White House. Many questions have been raised about the data from that election given the data appears to be anomalous when compared to previous elections and those that followed. It is constructive then to examine the popular vote in some detail as an exercise in democratic scrutiny, whilst taking into account that not all the votes from the 2024 election are yet finalised.
These were the popular vote numbers for the Republican party in the last three elections as recorded on the 24th November 2024:
2024 = 76,398,185 ~ 76.40 million.
2020 = 74,216,154 ~ 74.22 million
2016 = 62,984,828 ~ 62.98 million.
These were the popular vote number for the Democratic Party in the last three elections:
2024 = 73,688,756 ~ 73.69 million.
2020 = 81,268,924 ~ 81.27 million.
2016 = 65,853,514 ~ 65.85 million.
Note also that the population of the United States in these three years is estimated to have been around 345.4 million (2024), 329.5 million (2020) and 323.1 million (2016). This means that the actual percentage of people that voted for these two main parties (some would have voted for independents, typically <2% in 2024) was ~43.5% (2024), ~47.2% (2020), ~39.9% (2016). Indeed, we can in fact look back over the last two decades back to 1984 (President Reagan) and see how the proportion of the electorate voted for either Democrat or Republican and immediately we see that 2020 stands out as an anomalous year compared to all other years. This is shown in the data plotted below.
In the 2020 election between the two parties with the total of 155.48 million, this is split as 47.73% Republican and 52.27% Democrat, which means that the Democrats had approximately 4.54% more votes than the Republicans this year. This data also implies that in the 2020 election more people voted for these two main parties (neglecting other parties) than at any time in the last two decades.
The 4.54% advantage in the 2020 election is not unprecedented however. For example one can look at the winner margin of the popular vote between these two parties over the last two decades and one finds 3.53% (2024), 4.54% (2020), 2.22% (2016), 3.93% (2012), 7.38% (2008), 2.49% (2004), 0.54% (2000), 9.47% (1996), 6.91% (1992), 7.80% (1988), 18.34% (1984). Given that several of the previous year comparisons show a much higher winner margin it would be difficult to reach any conclusions about the 2020 results from this, although they are high when compared to the previous two elections and the one that occurred this year.
It is now useful to look at the overall popular vote of elections in the last two decades, but again restricted only to the two main parties and neglecting independents. In particular, it is useful to generate a polynomial trend fit on the peaks of the results and these are shown in the chart below for the US popular vote of the two main parties.
The plot is accompanied by a 6th order polynomial trend fit of the data. It is observed that for the red data bars (Republican) that the fit gives a good match through each of these peaks. This is not the case for the blue data bars (Democrat) however and this appears mainly due to the high voting numbers that featured in the 2008 and 2020 elections. Indeed, in order to get a match to the data the polynomial would have to be increased to a 7th or 8th order trend fit, which is suggestive of a more complex data set with more variables influencing the results.
We can look at how well the data is fitted by using a linear regression model, often referred to as R-Squared. This varies between 0 and 1 and is an indication for how much a response variable can be perfectly explained without error by a predictor variable. In this model the year is the predicator variable and the voting numbers is the response variable.
For the data shown above the red bars (Republican) show an R-Squared value of 0.9925, which means that 99.25% of the variation in the voting numbers can be explained by the trend in years of voting. By implication, 100 - 99.25 = 0.75% of the variation cannot be explained.
For the data shown above the blue bars (Democrat) show an R-Squared value of 0.9589, which means that 95.89% of the variation in the voting numbers can be explained by the trend in years of voting. By implication, 100 - 95.89 = 4.11% of the variation cannot be explained.
Comparing the two numbers, we see a difference of 4.11 - 0.75 = 3.36%. In other words, in order to get the blue data to fit a similar 6th order trend fit as the red data, the voting numbers would have to be lowered so that the R-Squared value was increased by 3.36%.
We can translate this difference directly into the number of votes by asking a specific question. By how much would we have to lower the 2008 and 2020 Democrat numbers in order to get the R-Squared value to be equivalent to 0.9925 the same as the Republican data, so that it can also be fitted with a 6th order polynomial? This was attempted and it is achieved provided the popular vote in both years for the Democrats was lowered to 90% of the recorded value, or where the values were lowered by 10%. The results are shown in the figure below and we note that the 2020 election popular vote would then favour Trump.
What would this look like in real terms?
2008: Current recorded popular vote = 69,498,516, Subtract 10% = 62,548,664.
2020: Current recorded popular vote = 81,268,924, Subtract 10% = 73,142,032.
In other words, an examination of the data for the popular vote over the last twenty years or 11 separate election cycles, suggests that in order for the Democrat vote to also fit a 6th order polynomial trend fit to the same level of regression via R-Squared as the Republican data, the popular vote for those years would have to be lowered by 6.949 million (2008) and 8.127 million (2020).
It is difficult to reach any firm conclusions over this without a much more detailed analysis of the data. However, we can certainly conclude that this is highly interesting and worthy of further investigation.
The figure below shows proportion of the popular vote as a percentage that went to the Republicans and Democrats jointly over these years. The slight increase in the 2008 numbers when compared to the previous years of 2004, 2000 and 1996 shows a consistent trend and there is little reason therefore to suspect any erroneous data. This would be the year that President Obama was first elected and he was done so on a rise of enthusiasm for his vision of hope. However, the 2020 data does appear to be inconsistent with the rise and fall trends shown in this graph in that it shows an anomalously high peak in the voting numbers. At the very least one would have to conclude that President Biden was as popular in the 2020 election as President Obama was in the 2008 election, if not more so. Is this believable?
Whether you agree with the politics of President Obama or not, it cannot be denied that he was a charismatic leader who inspired many behind his vision of hope and change. Indeed, not just in America but around the world many were inspired by his achievement of becoming the first black American to be elected to high office, including me, who afterwards went out and purchased one of his books Dreams from My Father. He was also an eloquent speaker of high intelligence and the sort of man you would want to hang out with. That his policies appeared to not live up to the promises is another matter entirely.
President Biden in contrast has been a career politician who has maintained the status quo within congress. As a man in his latter years, he lacks the eloquence of President Obama and this is compounded by what appears to be in recent years a severe health condition. Mistakenly stating that “I had cancer”, referring to the Vice President as the “First Lady” or making statements like “America is a nation that can be defined in a single word…. Asufutimaehaehfutbw”. Or in highly odd scenes of walking off stage and shaking hands with invisible people. This is not normal and has weakened the reputation of America in the eyes of the world. On this basis, it is extremely difficult to believe that President Biden could do as well as President Obama in the popular vote, let alone even better.
For several years President Trump has claimed that the election was stolen from him in 2020 due to voter fraud. This allegation has been vehemently denied by all sides, and in particular by the popular legacy media. Yet, the data shown above does appear to indicate that something is not right here, and whilst the government and media have often used the phrase “free and fair election” I am not sure that this statement is justified. Indeed, during the 2024 election on social media platforms like LinkedIn and Instagram I personally witnessed people filming incidents which appeared to show acts of voter fraud in the United States. So what is to be done about this?
To my mind, the situation is so urgent and that congress should meet in an emergency session and expedite the transition to the new President. This should be done immediately and without delay so that President-elect Trump can allow cooler heads to prevail and take actions in the interest of preventing an absolute catastrophe. Is this possible? I do not know but for those who hold constitutional authority it should be examined.
The possibility of an illegitimate administration in the White House is absolutely worrying since there are still two months to go. This is especially the case since that same administration in the dying embers of its term appears to be attempting to start World War 3 with Russia, and possibly also take actions to sabotage the next four years of the administration of President Trump so that he cannot act on his domestic agenda due to the existence of a global war.
One consideration is the US Code 606 War Powers of President.
“During the continuance of a war in which the United States is engaged, the President is authorized, if he finds it necessary for the national defense and security, to direct that such communications as in his judgment may be essential to the national defense and security shall have preference or priority with any carrier subject to this chapter. He may give these directions at and for such times as he may determine, and may modify, change, suspend, or annul them and for any such purpose he is authorized to issue orders directly, or through such person or persons as he designates for the purpose, or through the Commission.”
If World War Three does break out and America is in a state of war, can the transfer of the office of the President to a new administration be suspended? Is this why the White House is currently pushing the world towards war currently? Although I understand that would require a constitutional amendment. We note however that in Ukraine elections should have occurred in April 2024 and have been suspended due to martial law being in effect since February 2022.
Clearly, none of this is acceptable for the nation that claims it is the “leader of the free world”. Currently, the United States is not acting as a leader, nor is it acting as a free nation, in the suppression of opinions against the first amendment of the constitution. Whatever happens going forward, I would argue that in order to restore confidence in the Republic, a committee should be formed to create a new election process that minimises the possibility of voter fraud and also encourages independents to stand without blocking them through legal ways, the manner in which the Democrats did to Robert F Kennedy leading to his withdrawal. Whilst I am not claiming that I have proven voter fraud in this brief statistical analysis above, as a scientist I would go as far as to say that the anomaly of the 2020 election lends support towards this hypothesis.
Since President Biden has also not appeared to be coherent for some time, one must ask who is making the decisions for him in the White House? Which unelected officials are making decisions as a collective which influence the entire world and take us towards war? We may not know exactly who they are, but we know their character, and they are people that do not believe in the constitution of the United States or they wouldn’t do the things they do.
Someone who was very wise once told me that you can tell a traitor by “the deeds they perform and the emissions they make”. Since it appears that President Biden is not in control of the White House, we might get some indications of who is by laying out some indicators:
Who pushed hard for him (and Harris) to be elected?
Who went against their own party in standing against President Trump?
Who advocates for war?
Who’s interests are not served by President Trump being re-elected?
Who has strong ties to the military industrial (congressional) complex?
Anyone that can be identified as fitting these five tests is a likely candidate for behind the scenes manipulation. Since it would be libellous for me to speculate, I will not do so. Instead, I will leave it to others to speculate on who might fit this criteria and by definition has behaved in a wholly unamerican way.
Perhaps all we can do is be reminded of the words of some of the founding fathers:
“The end of democracy and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations”, Thomas Jefferson.
“If our nation is ever taken over, it will be taken over from within”. James Madison.
“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic”. Benjamin Franklin.
“But a Constitution of Government once changed from freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever”. John Adams.
“If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter”. George Washington.
“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves”. Abraham Lincoln.
Meanwhile, we prey that the so called enemies of America, such as Russia, hold steady on the apparent provocation that is taking them towards war. Quite honestly, for all the people of the world, January 20th 2025 could not come soon enough. Yet, a lot can happen in 60 days and we should be mindful of the games being played out without the consent of any of the citizens of the United States, let alone all those of this blue planet Earth for which these events carry profound implications and weight.
